"My anti-dillusion framework"

The human brain is a complex organ with the wonderful power of enabling man to find reasons for continuing to believe whatever it is that he wants to believe.” - Voltaire

Here is a simple framework that I use to make sure I am not fooling myself. When I need to make a major decision, I ask myself three questions:

  • What is my gut feeling?
  • Let's build a model. What are the choices? What are the evaluation criteria? I'd make a spreadsheet of these and assigned a value from 1-10 to each cell, which will give me a score for each choice.
  • What does people I trust say? I will go to someone that I trust, someone will tell me his or her opinion without feeling uncomfortable.

Hopefully, in the process of working through the above questions, the scores will gradually converge and the answer becomes clear. Like I said, this is pretty simple technique but it has served me well.